初始化协作仓库：赛题材料、初步试解与协作说明
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======================================================================
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Q1 候选特征百分位基线
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======================================================================
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feature unit event_value pctl_vs_season n_control extremeness
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netrad W/m2 356.232 96.585 205 46.585
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dVWC_24h m3/m3/d -0.011 4.878 205 45.122
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Ta_2m degC 11.720 93.659 205 43.659
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precip_72h mm/72h 0.000 10.732 205 39.268
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dpres_3h hPa/3h 0.600 15.854 205 34.146
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RH_2m % 69.400 19.512 205 30.488
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soilT_0.1 degC 17.038 78.537 205 28.537
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dT_2_10 degC 0.340 76.341 205 26.341
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precip_24h mm/24h 0.000 27.073 205 22.927
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shear_1_20 1/s 0.013 29.268 205 20.732
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VWC_0.1 m3/m3 0.083 56.098 205 6.098
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precip_3h mm/3h 0.000 46.341 205 3.659
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precip_1h mm/h 0.000 48.293 205 1.707
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WS_10m m/s 0.785 48.293 205 1.707
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按年 bootstrap 排序稳定性（500 次，5 年有放回）：
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feature rank_mean rank_p05 rank_p95 top5_freq
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netrad 1.31 1.00 2.00 1.00
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dVWC_24h 2.09 1.00 3.00 1.00
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Ta_2m 2.74 2.00 4.00 1.00
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precip_72h 4.14 4.00 5.00 1.00
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dpres_3h 5.31 5.00 6.00 0.69
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RH_2m 6.53 6.00 8.00 0.00
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soilT_0.1 7.20 3.00 11.00 0.31
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dT_2_10 7.80 7.00 9.00 0.00
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precip_24h 8.86 7.00 10.00 0.00
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shear_1_20 9.65 9.00 11.00 0.00
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VWC_0.1 10.89 7.00 14.00 0.00
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precip_3h 12.18 11.00 13.00 0.00
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WS_10m 12.78 11.00 14.00 0.00
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precip_1h 13.51 13.00 14.00 0.00
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======================================================================
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数据核查：附件冰川 NetCDF 与本底 DEM / 公开 AOI 的坐标一致性
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======================================================================
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nc 质心 lon=85.52770 lat=28.28802；公开 AOI bbox lon[85.5050,85.5400] lat[28.2620,28.2920]；质心是否落在 AOI 内：True
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重叠格点 20010；本地 DEM 均值 4977 m，nc 均值 4991 m；差值中位 +29.0 m，MAE 43.6 m
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======================================================================
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Q4 情景传播基线：真实 DEM 上 D8 路径 + Voellmy 型一维运动积分
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======================================================================
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源区中心 (lon=85.5190, lat=28.2740) -> 行 261, 列 296, DEM 高程 5017 m, 坡度 22.3°
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路径格点 54，水平长度 20.62 km，落差 2746 m，末端高程 1913 m
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mu xi_m_s2 h_m v_max_m_s t_total_s t_total_min v_end_m_s runout_km
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0.1 2000 25.0 99.7 730.8 12.2 0.5 20.6
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0.1 1000 25.0 84.9 3259.6 54.3 0.5 20.6
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0.1 2000 10.0 79.0 4078.6 68.0 0.5 20.6
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0.1 500 25.0 69.4 5760.7 96.0 0.5 20.6
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0.1 1000 10.0 64.9 6571.7 109.5 0.5 20.6
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0.1 500 10.0 50.2 9137.1 152.3 0.5 20.6
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0.1 2000 25.0 93.0 9952.5 165.9 0.5 20.6
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0.1 1000 25.0 79.3 11473.4 191.2 0.5 20.6
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0.1 2000 10.0 73.8 11911.0 198.5 0.5 20.6
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0.1 500 25.0 65.9 13785.1 229.8 0.5 20.6
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0.1 1000 10.0 61.8 14617.0 243.6 0.5 20.6
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0.1 500 10.0 48.1 17978.8 299.6 0.5 20.6
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0.2 500 10.0 43.6 20000.0 333.3 0.0 20.6
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0.2 500 25.0 58.3 20000.0 333.3 0.0 20.6
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0.2 1000 10.0 55.0 20000.0 333.3 0.0 20.6
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0.2 1000 25.0 66.8 20000.0 333.3 0.0 20.6
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0.2 2000 10.0 64.4 20000.0 333.3 0.0 20.6
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0.2 2000 25.0 78.2 20000.0 333.3 0.0 20.6
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代表情景 (μ=0.10, ξ=1000, h=25 m) 每 2 km 到达时间：
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km t_min v_m_s elev
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2.1 0.8 79.3 3727.1
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4.2 1.4 42.2 3450.7
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6.0 2.5 49.2 3162.9
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7.9 3.3 19.1 2932.2
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10.2 4.6 23.8 2603.4
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12.0 14.4 32.6 2366.2
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14.1 32.8 17.2 2213.3
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15.9 71.0 0.5 2139.3
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18.0 119.1 0.5 2003.4
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19.8 171.1 21.4 1916.6
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